Cryptocurrency – investment or gamble?

It’s a gamble… and anyone that tells you different is talking shit.

Money Mash

Full disclosure….

In 2013, I attended a course on developing trends of online criminality and one of the presentations covered the two most prominent coins at the time Bitcoin and Litecoin.

Now, I would like to boast how I was interested in the decentralised system that underpins cryptocurrency or even amazed by advantages to countries where the majority of the population don’t even have a bank account but that would be a lie. I was shown the value of bitcoin on a graph going up and being the opportunistic weasel I am, I thought I’ll have some of that!

So I became an early-ish adopter, when I brought £5500 worth at about £64 a coin from the now defunct exchange MtGox.

Within the same year, I signed up to Ripple and was given 1000 free ripples when they were first released and I still own these somewhere on an old laptop. Today they are worth between £200 – £300.

Selling too soon…

In January 2014, I lost my job and decided I needed to sell some of my bitcoin to help pay for my outgoings. I had most bitcoins saved in a wallet on a USB stick and the rest were being traded daily on the MtGox exchange. The latter proved to be the wrong choice because after few quick withdrawals from MtGox, it started taking weeks, until finally I received notice that MtGox had suspended withdrawals and subsequently filed for bankruptcy.

Those motherfuckers still hold 1.5 of my bitcoins and its unlikely I will see them returned in this century.

The rest I sold through various exchanges during the peak of 2014, when the Cypriot and Greek governments threatened to dip into peoples bank accounts to save the financially fucked countries and people used Bitcoin to protect themselves. So I brought the coins at about £64 and sold most for varying amounts between £490 – £680, meaning I made a nice return minus the relevant fees and taxes.

Roll on 2017…

I hadn’t given much thought about crypto until 2017, when it appeared on every new site and so I looked up the value. I felt instantly sick because it had risen to over £11,000, and then £15,000 before peaking in December 2017 at over £17,000 a coin… fuck! My original holding would be have worth about £1.5 million and I sold for far less.

It ruined Christmas that year and for months I would be thinking about it but in the end, it obviously wasn’t meant to be and I didn’t do too badly.

fuck fuck fuck

Gamble or investment?

It’s a gamble… and anyone that tells you different is talking shit.

Nobody on this planet can predict accurately what the value of bitcoin might be in 1 minute, 1 week or 1 years’ time. Those that predict a coin will rise thousands of pounds before the years out have no basis or evidence that will happen because the truth is… they are as clueless as you but are probably holding some crypto they want to pump and dump.

Take the self-proclaimed Bitcoin poster boy Eric Finman, at 12 years old he purchased $1000 worth of Bitcoin and is supposedly now a bitcoin millionaire from which he tries to portray himself as some kind of Bitcoin Buffett investor that foresaw and continues to foresee the rise or fall of the Bitcoin price. This is nonsense, he gambled and may have won the Bitcoin lottery but he is no Warren Buffett.

Unfortunately, with no regulation it means it is practically the Wild West and leaves novice investors very vulnerable.

The problem with Bitcoin

It is not backed by anything, it is not mainstream, it is not been widely adopted and could be stopped overnight.

Ok, the point of being decentralised means the Government would not be able to shutdown crypto but do you honestly believe they will allow a currency that is not centrally controlled to become widely adopted?… Not a chance, which means they are likely to disrupt the market enough that the value drops below a Vietnamese Dong. How will they do this?

Its simple really…

  • Ban exchanges from transferring crypto into traditional currency over fears of money laundering, tax evasion, ability to fund terrorism etc… that would fuck most casual ‘investors’ that don’t want to purchase milk with bitcoin and prefer to cash out into actual money.
  • Prevent mainstream retailers from accepting Bitcoin both directly or indirectly, by banning it outright because the fears outlined above or persuading banks to freeze or block accounts that are used to convert Bitcoins to traditional currencies.
  • Banking restrictions. I can’t imagine banks will need that much convincing to clamp down on customers using bitcoin or the like, after all crypto is a direct competitor.

The government only needs to make it unattractive for the casual ‘investors’ that want to make money by selling crypto at a high before exchanging it into a traditional currency. These people far outweigh the die-hard crypto fanatics that believe a revolution will happen and they will eventually be able just to live on their chosen coin.

And why hasn’t the government done this yet? Because the Cryto market is a microscopic blip on the radar of a global trillion dollar financial system. Almost like a parasite inside a mosquito, perched on a rhinoceros arse and it could be squashed at any moment.

So is Cryto worth it?

Yes and no.

People are making money and serious money everyday trading crypto, so yes you can make money if you are smart and lucky but in the long term nobody knows.

So treat it for what it is, a GAMBLE not an investment and only bet what you can afford to lose!

Ignore the forums of so called experts and the snake oil salesmen like Erik Finman.

I hope you have better luck than I did and I hope you aren’t holding the can when the music stops.

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